Optimal Prediction for the Kuramoto

We examine the problem of predicting the evolution of solutions of the KuramotoSivashinsky equation when initial data are missing. We use the optimal prediction method to construct equations for the reduced system. The resulting equations for the resolved components of the solution are random integrodifferential equations. The accuracy of the predictions depends on the type of projection used in the integral term of the optimal prediction equations and on the choice of resolved components. The novel features of our work include the first application of the optimal prediction formalism to a nonlinear, non-Hamiltonian equation and the use of a non-invariant measure constructed through inference from empirical data.